Modeling human behavior in the aftermath of a hypothetical improvised nuclear detonation
نویسندگان
چکیده
In this paper we describe a multiagent simulation model of human behavior in the aftermath of a hypothetical, largescale, human-initiated crisis in the center of Washington D.C. Prior studies of this scenario have focused on modeling the physical effects of the attack, such as thermal and blast effects, prompt radiation, and fallout. Casualty and mortality estimates have been obtained by assuming a spatially static human population, ignoring human behavioral response to the event. We build a simulation of a behaving human population and its interaction with various interdependent infrastructures, to try to understand how human response to such an event would change outcomes, and also how modeling this response would enable us to develop new perspectives on planning for this event. Here we present details of the simulation, focusing on the agent design and multiagent interaction, and present initial results on how rapid restoration of communication could alter behavior beneficially.
منابع مشابه
Integrating Behavior and Microsimulation Models
Microsimulations focus on modeling routine activities of individuals and have been used for modeling and planning urban systems like transportation, energy demand, and epidemiology. On the other hand, planning for emergency situations (e.g., disasters) needs to account for human behavior which is not routine or pre-planned but depends upon the current situation like the amount of physical damag...
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